Spring Starts Thursday

After a long winter for everyone in the East and Midwest this year, it appears to be coming to an end after a monster storm this Tuesday and Wednesday exits. Speaking of the storm, it looks to bring nuisance type snow to the Mid-Atlantic and New England. As little as flurries for western Ct and a few inches for eastern CT is possible overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This is a powerhouse storm that will bomb out well south east of the 40N/70W “benchmark” as seen below around 980mb and deepening.Image

However, if you look at the lifting factors that will cause heavy precip from this storm, they are well off the coast on the gfs seen below on the 700mb omega chart.

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What this means is that the heaviest and/or all of the precip stays mostly offshore giving SE New England a moderate to perhaps heavy snowfall around Nantucket. That being said, winds will be howling along the New England coast Wednesday morning.

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The models appear to have a good handle on the energies associated with this storm so I don’t expect a huge shift west with the storm track. The chances of that are possible but well under 10% at this point. After the storm and looking further ahead it appears we are headed for a spring like warm up as temps reach the 40′s and 50′s in the northeast and look to stay that way and rise into April! Warm times ahead!

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More Snow on Tuesday, then Warmup

After being pummeled with snow the northeast will experience yet another round on Tuesday as a clipper comes through. This time, however no big accumulations but a general 1-3, 2-4 inch event for most in Southern New England during the day on Tuesday. After that there will be a brief warm up towards the end of the week with temperatures reaching into the 40′s near 50 by Thursday and Friday.

GFS 500mb heights 2-16-14

The thaw however will be short lived as it looks cold right through most of March right now. Given the winter we’ve had it’s not surprising. A close analog this year (1993-1994) was cold and snowy right through March and that may be the case this year as well. Spring lovers be patient!

GFS 500mb heights 240 hr

Video

Update on Storm

Major Winter Storm Impacts

Video update on the storm is currently being uploaded. Major impacts felt from Texas to New England from this one. I expect very heavy snow to overspread CT tomorrow and quickly accumulate to 6-10 inches for most before changing to a wintry mix and rain towards dark. A dry slot will work in over night before going back to snow Friday morning. Major travel impacts form Thursday through Friday morning at this point. More details coming in the video.

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In Depth Snow Map for Wednesday Storm

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Here is a look at what I’m thinking for late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Worst of the storm will be Wednesday morning with snowfall rates of 1+ inch an hour.

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New SPC Mesoscale Discussion

New SPC Mesoscale Discussion

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